Blackberry koers & forum

Gisteren laat tikte Blackberry de 6 CAD aan bij sluiting.
De nadruk op veilige verbindingen loont zich. Voor NOKIA ook trouwens.
Met dank aan de mogelijke hybride oorlogsvoering van Rusland.

Ooit een must voor alle hoge ambtenaren in Duitsland (wel...totdat bleek dat Angela Merkels Blackberry phone toch niet immuun was voor spionage), viel het aandeel van Blackberry in een zwart gat. Maar er heeft een duidelijke remonte plaats gevonden door nieuwe activiteiten. Dit kan interessant worden, ook omdat dit aandeel ook noteert op de Canadese beurs (Toronto) en ik eigenlijk een zwakkere US Dollar verwacht tov de Canadese Dollar.
Om het in een context te plaatsen dit artikel op de seekingalpha site:

"Sep. 26, 2025 4:53 PM ETBlackBerry Limited (BB) Stock, BB:CA Stock
Summary
BlackBerry has transitioned from smartphones to intelligent software, showing improved results and profitability, especially in its QNX OS business.
BB's QNX division is driving growth, with a strong backlog and expansion potential into robotics, but overall company growth remains modest.
The stock now trades at 5x forward sales, reflecting recent multiple expansion; further upside depends on finding new growth drivers beyond the current backlog.
Over the last year, BlackBerry Limited (BB) finally turned the corner. The intelligent software company has spent years trying to transition from a seller of smartphones to a focus on mobile and security software. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, as the recent gains more than account for any improvements in the business.
Improving Results
Blackberry reported an August quarter where the numbers were only impressive in comparison to past weak results. The company reported revenue growth of only 3% with a small profit as follows:
The QNX business has turned into a solid growth story with OS growth in connected cars and future potential in robots. BlackBerry is currently in 255 million vehicles with a growing backlog reaching $855 million in FY25.
The company forecasts this division to grow ~10% to reach $256-$270 million in the current fiscal year with likely guidance for solid growth in FY27. The royalty growth rate has slowed down with minimal growth during FY25 after exceptional growth in the prior couple of years, going from $460 million in FY22 to $815 million in FY24.
BlackBerry is still half reliant on the Secure Communications business where the FY26 revenue guidance is only at $239-$247 million after dipping YoY in FQ2. The segment saw FQ2 revenues slip by 10% to just $60 million while the ARR increased YoY to $213 million.
BlackBerry achieved these results while cutting costs. The company is now reporting a GAAP profit with operating expenses of $75 million in the quarter, down 5% from the prior year while investing in growing the QNX business.
The intelligent software company reported adjusted EBITDA of $26 million, up to a 20% margin and far above last year due to selling the Cylance division. BlackBerry has positive cash flows now, allowing the company to repurchase shares with the strong $364 million cash balance as of the end of August. In addition, the Cylance division was sold last December for $160 million in cash and 5.5 million common shares of Arctic Wolf.
No Longer A Discount
The stock now trades at 5x forward sales with a lot of the recent rally due to multiple expansion. Worth noting, BlackBerry actually reported sales of $145 million in FQ3'25 prior to dumping Cylance, so the reported number of $129 million was actually below the sales from last year.
BlackBerry is only forecast to grow at a mid-single digit clip in the years ahead. The QNX royalty business has some market opportunity in IoT and robotics areas where sales growth could accelerate; otherwise, the company appears set to plod along with minimal growth.
The company forecasts the SAM nearly doubling to $5.9 billion in CY28 due to the expansion into new areas beyond auto. BlackBerry has very much struggled to drive acceleration growth in these highly competitive areas in the past, so an investor should not assume the intelligent software company grabs a large market share in hot new areas like robotics.
Management guided revenue estimates for the year to $519-$541 million with analysts currently at a FY27 revenue target of $575 million. The stock still trades close to 5x EV/S targets for the next fiscal year, while the forecast is for minimal earnings.
Takeaway
The key investor takeaway is that BlackBerry has made a solid investment over the last year when the stock was bought on dips. The company now needs substantial new growth drivers to play out to warrant further upside after the quick rally to nearly $5. If BlackBerry breaks above the prior highs from the end of June, the stock probably has some quick upside to the yearly high at $6 before taking a major pause."